Q&A with Dr Henry Zerby and Chef John Csukor

What happens when supply chain and culinary team up to talk through purchasing and menuing strategies? You get cost-effective solutions to many of your procurement challenges. Recently, Entegra hosted the Cost Outlook Webinar, an informative session that focused on strategies to mitigate inflation on your most purchased products.

Our expert panel included:

• Dr. Henry Zerby, Vice President, Supply Management, Sodexo
• Chef John Csukor, Head of Culinary North America, Entegra
• Tracey Ranallo, Vice President of Business Performance and Supplier Engagement

Register to watch the free webinar replay now.

Many guests submitted questions to Entegra’s expert panel, and as the answers could be helpful to most food service operators, we’ve compiled them below to help everyone think through their food purchasing strategy over the coming months.

Question: How long do you think it will take for the cattle market to replenish?

“There will be a minimum of two years, and more likely three, before the cattle heard in the U.S. increases from its current lows,” said Zerby. “However, in addition to supply, demand will play a role in sustaining high prices. We expect prices will remain up as consumers have continued to support demand.”

Question: With beef supply down, where do you expect the tradeoff to be? More plant-based options? More poultry?

“I personally see expansion in other animal-based proteins,” said Chef Jonh. “Seafood, poultry and pork are poised for growth as alternatives. While growth numbers are published in consumer-packaged goods, food-service operators report difficulty selling plant-based items in restaurants.”

Question: Specifically, what is the forecast for the center-of-plate proteins for 2024? What are we watching that may tip the scales?

According to Zerby:

• Beef – expect prices to remain very high through 2024.  
• Pork – similar to the price levels we saw in 2023. There is always volatility around bacon and seasonal fluctuation with further processed/ground products.
• Chicken – expect prices to move upward into and through the summer and then moderate into the back half of the year.
• Turkey – depends on HPAI – prices will remain steady unless HPAI activity increases, which will result in increased prices due to limited supply.
• Fin fish – prices to move upward as we move through the year.

Download the Cost Outlook report.

Question: How does Entegra mitigate potential food waste to help businesses with their profitability?

“Entegra focuses on the training, process and management tools that are helpful in changing behaviors which can lead to food waste,” said Chef John. “We use Lean Path, a tool designed to change waste-driven behavior by showcasing food weight before and after processing.

“Our culinary team is also keenly aware of the processes and practices that can mitigate waste within your menu. We create a custom plan, enabling more concise management of preparation practices to reduce waste."

Will some food costs come back down?

“It depends on the combination of the cost factors that go into producing a food product and the percentage of the cost model each of these factors represents” said Zerby.

“For example, labor only goes one direction — up; however, commodities cycle up and down. If commodities are moving down and they represent a significant portion of the cost model, then the price of that product may also come down.

“In the case of French fries, the price of potatoes is a significant component of the cost model. So, the price of fries will more closely mimic that of raw potatoes. In the case of non-food products such as disposables, several of these products have a petroleum base (plastics and packaging) and as such tend to follow crude oil markets. We have seen some reductions in plastics and packaging in reduced prices for many disposable items.”

Ready to partner with a GPO that provides cost savings, strategic insights and business performance improvements? Contact us today to get started.

March 04, 2024