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A cost outlook Q&A: What factors drive changes in commodity prices and what can you do about it?

A cost outlook Q&A: What factors drive changes in commodity prices and what can you do about it?

February 9th, 2026
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The times, they are a-changing. That’s why Entegra’s top supply chain, culinary and industry experts, along with economists from AES (Advanced Economic Solutions, LLC) compile, analyze and make recommendations for operators to make the most informed purchasing decisions they can for their foodservice and hospitality businesses. 

With diverse pressures like weather events, tariffs and geopolitical events driving changes in commodity prices, three of these pros joined the recent Cost Outlook Webinar to share their thoughts on how you can navigate supply challenges, tariff impacts and inflationary pressures to operate more efficiently and profitably. 

Register to watch the webinar replay

Below is a sampling of some of the straightforward insights and advice they shared. 

How is Entegra working to mitigate uncertainty around tariffs and cost increases on commodities? 

Bobbie Moorman: Tariffs continue to evolve quickly. While the tendency is to go into panic mode, we have a team of world class experts who are working diligently with our supply partners to stay close to these topics and truly understand what is happening and sort through the noise. We can expect some price increases but the extent of price increases are governed by how much of a product is being tariffed. 

If it’s simply one ingredient in a product that contains 10 different ingredients, then that impact is relatively small. 

We have taken some increases as relates to tariffs. But our team has done our due diligence to understand the cost model and if the request is appropriate. All the noise does not change the principles we use day in and day out. We’re always looking for opportunities in our supply chain for areas of price improvement, quality improvement, consistency and supply assurance. We’ll continue to do that. 

Many of the tariffs in place have already been modified or reduced, and we expect this to continue as well. Our team will continue to adjust and optimize product portfolios and seek better pricing alternatives for our clients to mitigate these shifts as they occur. 

Related: Bull market: How to overcome rising beef prices in 2026 

How does the delay in increased tariffs on non-food items like furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities impact operators? 

Jeffrey Simmons: A delay on increased tariffs for 2026 was welcome news for customers and suppliers from foodservice to hospitality to casinos and senior living communities. The 2025 tariffs remain in place with a 10% tariff on soft wood timber and lumber and 25% on finished goods. So, for 2026 we have some stability around expectations for costs for the calendar year. 

We hope 2026 will usher in a reprieve on tariff rates across the board to ease pressure on suppliers and consumers. An important call out is that the full weight of a tariff is not reflected in the cost. For example, a 50% tariff doesn’t necessarily mean there is a 50% price increase and there is a time delay in the implementation. 

There’s an opportunity to move up buys in purchases on these products if you were planning on buying later in the year. This will help you mitigate significant cost increases for 2027. I know that can be a difficult decision in today’s environment, but it could yield some significant savings. 

Another tip: talk to your suppliers, talk about projects and make the most informed decision you can with the available data you have. And finally, you might want to consider, instead of purchasing new products, there are opportunities to use a furniture repair solution to extend the life of some of those assets to buy yourself a little more time. 

Are there any notable shifts or insights into the coffee market that can impact our operators purchasing or menu strategies? 

Moorman: Originally, we were watching coffee closely as tariffs were put on Brazil. However, since the initial tariff was put in place, coffee has been excluded. But keep in mind, while the tariffs have been eliminated, there is still inventory out there with the tariff attached to it, so we’ll need to deplete that supply before we feel the full impact of that change. We expect to start seeing some of that to occur in Q2. 

We expect continued pressure on that market due to supply and demand. Brazil saw a small ’25-’26 crop, which is pushing prices to stay inflated. Arabica coffee has been trading between that $3.45-$3.75 mark over the past month and currently sitting around $3.55. So, tariff relief and the expectation of a large crop in ’26/’27 is providing some relief. However, supply remains tight and with the weather risks involved in growing coffee, we expect prices to stay supported. 

Robusto production has expanded significantly, leading to lower prices. But the North American market really prefers Arabica, so we expect prices to remain elevated in 2026. They should start to trend down as we move into that new crop. 

Read more: The tea on coffee: Market volatility, sustainability and the 2026 outlook 

What are the specific solutions or best practices that we advise operators to help manage coffee costs to keep customers satisfied? 

Kevin Sennett: One of the best practices you can take is to host a coffee cupping. This is something we do at the EPK. This is so you understand the proper water to ground ratio for what your net price actually is. Something else to keep in mind is that 80% of Americans add creamer to their coffee, and that percentage jumps up to 85% when we’re talking about Gen Z. That’s another factor to keep in mind. But ultimately, consistency is what drives repeat business, especially with coffee sales. 

Tips for coffee success: 

  1. Review your procedures.
  2. Check that your machine is calibrated.
  3. Check on waste: How often are your front-of-house employees dumping the coffee.

With all the changes in the market, what must stay constant at the operational level for a business to be successful? 

Simmons: These are the top strategies to keep in mind: 

  1. Placing orders. The unit-level team member placing orders should be consistent week in and week out, so they know what to buy and where from for the best value.
  2. Taking inventory. Keep a consistent process for taking and assessing inventory needs based on business conditions to allow flexible and adaptable inventory builds for business demand.
  3. Working with suppliers. Use consistent suppliers for your major products and ensure with your distributors you have weekly engagement to keep communication strong so you can give them advance notice of larger needs based on demand
  4. Honing your process. All of the above tie back to developing SOPs (standard operating procedures), communicating regularly with staff and training to ensure everyone is working at the same level towards the same goal with the same level of accountability and commitment 

Moorman: In a volatile food market protecting the fundamentals is what keeps a company successful. Food safety and quality must be top of mind. No cost pressure, supplier change or volume swing justifies risk. 

Once trust is lost with customers, it’s nearly impossible to regain. Clients must ensure the consumer experience stays consistent even when formulations, sourcing or pack sizes evolve. The consumer must experience the same quality, taste, and reliability every time. 

To Jeff’s last point about strong SOPs, these allow us to absorb labor volatility, raw material shifts and demand swings without operational failure. 

Sennett: The best way to manage costs is to invest where customers see the most: your front-of-house employees through training. Spend the time to create consistency, to separate your brand from the competition. Look at improving wait ties, staff attentiveness and product consistency. 

One practice we do at the Entegra Performance Kitchen is perform operational reviews. We take a look at front-of-house and back-of-house and take the time to understand where opportunities are to create consistencies and offer solutions. 

Related: Learn more about Entegra Culinary Consulting 

Want to hear more from the experts? Entegra’s team shared many more insights. Check out the Cost Outlook report or listen to the replay of the latest Cost Outlook webinar!